AKBAR BUGTI & AFTER

The discussion focused on the developments in Balochistan after the brutal killing of Akbar Khan Bugti, the leader of Bugti tribe. Linkages to past insurgencies in the region, demands of the Baloch Sardars, interests of Baloch sub tribes, involvement of a foreign hand and the role of the Pakistani army in Bugti's killing were some of the significant factors examined. Another crucial issue debated was whether Bugti's death is a 'national disaster' for Pakistan or just a 'military initiative.'
C Rajamohan
Significant developments have taken place in Pakistan in the past few weeks. However, India needs to be extremely cautious and objective while assessing these developments. The death of Akbar Khan Bugti is an important event for the opposition parties in Pakistan. But it is still unclear whether this will serve as ammunition in their hands. Even the PML-Q headed by Shujaat Husain, which is supposed to be a supporter of the central government, has expressed regret on Bugti's death.
Kalim Bahadur
Akbar Bugti possessed a complex and contradictory personality. He was a typical feudal lord having an authoritarian and criminal bent of mind. He became the Governor of Balochistan in 1973 and helped Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto to suppress the insurgency and was the only tribal warlord to do so. He never spoke about separatism. He had supported Baloch accession to Pakistan in 1948 unlike other tribal Sardars who had opposed it. Therefore, his importance for Pakistan should have been greater. The year 1948 marked the beginning of Baloch alienation. The first insurgency took place in the same year. Three more insurgencies took place thereafter in 1958, 1963 and 1973.
In 1973, Bhutto decided to abolish the Sardari system. He introduced limited industrialization and education that gave birth to a new working class as well as a section of radicals. This period also strengthened the growing nationalist movement in Balochistan.
Many contradictions characterize Balochistan. It is a tribal society led by Sardars. Women possess no rights amidst a simultaneous growth of a radical movement. Neither Bhutto nor the Sardars ever initiated serious measures to overcome backwardness in the region. The rate of literacy in Balochistan is 24 percent as compared to 36 percent in Pakistan. Balochistan also has the highest child mortality rate.
The discovery of Sui gas in the late 1950s exposed the rich natural resource base of Balochistan. However, the region has not reaped all the benefits accruing to it from its resources. For example, Quetta is the only beneficiary of the gas from Sui. Moreover, only five percent of people have piped water in Balochistan. There are no Baloch soldiers or officers in the Baloch regiment and only 90 out of 12,000 coast guards are from Balochistan.
Military regimes are largely centralized systems. As a result, all Baloch problems are discussed and resolved in Islamabad. People in Balochistan are wary of mega projects initiated by Pakistan as they fear these projects may result in unemployment, underemployment and turn the local population into a minority. For example, the Baloch are against the functioning of the Gwadar port that employs large umber of Chinese nationals. They also demand an abolition of the Concurrent list. There is a government in Balochistan but elections are rigged and it has no power. This has instigated the Marris, Bugtis and Mengals (the three main tribes in Balochistan) to protest against the discriminatory policies of the government.
Bugti received 12 million rupees from the Centre as royalty for Sui gas and one million rupees as transportation charges. Many are of the opinion that Bugti was running a 'self serving' movement in Balochistan, in order to get more royalty on Sui. The Military regime did not consider it important to fulfill the demands of a small province like Balochistan and saw Bugti as representing the vested interests of a small minority group. This was the main reason for killing him.
D Suba Chandran
Bugti's killing has not yet become a political disaster. It was a military initiative with no involvement of the political elite. Musharraf has won the 'battle' but the 'war' against Baloch nationalism is far from over. Also, without external support, Baloch nationalist movement will not succeed.
Firstly, circumstances prevailing prior to Bugti's killing need to be closely examined. The sub tribes of the Bugtis namely Kalpars and Masuris have been traditional opponents of Akbar Bugti. The military regime purposely pushed the Kalpars back to Dera Bugti and Sui areas, while Musharraf tried to side with the Kalpars on their claim over Sui and the royalty accruing from it in order to weaken Akbar Bugti's position.?????????? Moreover, there were series of surrenders by Marri and Bugti tribesmen and Musharraf ensured that no political vacuum prevailed before the killing of Bugti. Two days before the killing, a tribal jirga comprising of most of the sub tribes was held that decided to confiscate Bugti's property. The jirga agreed on the prevalence of Pakistani Law and abolition of the Sardari system.
Sui is highly important to Pakistan due to its rich gas reserves, royalty and supplies. Therefore, killing of Bugti aimed at teaching him a lesson for trying to gain more benefits from the area.
Secondly, the future of the Baloch nationalist movement is unclear. Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, Sardar Ataullah Mengal, and Nawab Khair Bux Marri had their own differences that resulted in numerous egoistic clashes. With the killing of Bugti, the question is who will represent him? There is an intra family clash among the Bugtis over the new Sardar's position. The alliance of the heads of three tribes against the centre is in trouble. However, another view is that by killing Bugti, Musharraf has made him a national 'hero.'
Thirdly, the Balochistan Liberation Army or BLA does not have the capability to fight a long waged war against the army or carry out guerilla warfare. It remains a Marri militia and the involvement of Bugtis and Mengals is limited. The role of the middle class and the Baloch Diaspora in the BLA has to be analyzed in greater depth. It is doubtful if the BLA will become a potent force to reckon with, given its inherent weakness and strength of Pakistan's 'lethal' armed forces.
So far, it is a military initiative and not a 'national disaster' and the opposition has not been able to mobilize or push for the no-confidence motion. Even the PML-Q has not split. The MMA will decide whether it wants to continue its membership in the Baloch Legislative Assembly. Thus, Bugti's killing has not become a rallying point for the political parties. Only some border districts of Sindh and Karachi have witnessed violence and protests while other districts are peaceful. The killing of Bugti is more a mistake than a disaster.
Many believe that US has vested interests in the region because of the Chinese presence and interest in Gwadar. It is important to bear in mind that neither the Baloch nationalist movement nor the Baloch armed movement will succeed until they get proactive external support.
C Rajamohan
In Pakistan, the common view is that Balochistan is receiving external support from India. However, the US, Chinese and Iranian interests too play a crucial role given the geopolitics of the region. Therefore, the implications of Bugti's killing for India need to be analyzed comprehensively.
Comments
· Three questions come to mind concerning foreign influence in Balochistan: (a) did the United States support the killing of Akbar Bugti? (b) Is it not too late for them to show an interest in Gwadar and do they want to control the area? (c) Will Pakistan step-up its operation in Kashmir in reaction to India's official declaration of support to Balochistan??
· The media is exaggerating the situation in Balochistan by portraying Bugti as a martyr and comparing the crisis in the region to the alienation of East Pakistan in the 1960s. We should focus on the situation in India itself, rather than exaggerate the Balochistan case.?
· Though Akbar Bugti had been trying to rally the Balochis around him and had held most of the important posts in Pakistan; he was regarded with suspicion. His death could unite the Balochis in a way that he could not achieve while he was alive. The threat that he represented to other leaders will no longer be there after his death. There was a general strike in Balochistan immediately after the death of Bugti. Therefore it would be incorrect to say that Bugti's death had no effect on events in Balochistan. ?
· The question of foreign assistance to Balochistan is an important issue to be examined. Gwadar is completed and has the potential to become a new Dubai. However this can only happen if it is connected to the hinterland. China intends to build pipelines and roads from Gilgit to Gwadar. The US thus has a vested interest in making it impossible for China to gain access to Gwadar. ?
· Can the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) sustain the insurgency in Balochistan in the same manner as in Iraq or Afghanistan? Does it have the resources and wherewithal to fight? ?
· According to the reports originating from Pakistan, the Pakistani establishment is trying hard to make the whole affair appear as an individual action against Balochistan by Musharraf and not as an attack from the Pakistani federal state. ?
· The US realizes that Musharraf is a very dependable ally. However, it is highly debatable whether Russia would be prepared to fight off Gwadar by supporting the Balochi struggle and risk antagonizing Iran with which it has good relations. ?
· The Indian focus has shifted from Punjab to Balochistan in Pakistan. But India's support to the Balochi cause is questionable. A distinction should be made between supporting democratic movements and supporting violent movements.?
· The Pakistani army has evaded responsibilities in the aftermath of Bugti's killing. According to a Bugti tribe guide, Akbar Bugti died due to the collapse of the cave he was living in and not due to any military action. Initially the Army bragged about killing him but later distanced itself from Bugti's killing fearing a backlash.
Responses
Kalim Bahadur
· India is and should support the Balochi cause because it is in India's interest to do so. The Indian statement supporting the establishment of democracy in Balochistan should be viewed in this light. ?
· Gwadar is a Chinese project in a strategic and vital location. Balochistan gives access to Central Asia and Afghanistan, with the possibility of pipelines between these regions and the Indian Ocean. Therefore it is not surprising that India, the US and Russia are also extremely interested in Gwadar.
D Suba Chandran
· A comparison between Balochistan and East Pakistan is irrelevant not only because the two regions are extremely different (For example, Balochistan is a tribal land) but also because no country can currently provide such a large-scale support to Balochistan as India did to East Pakistan in the 1960s.?
· Indian interests in Balochistan are limited by the fact that it does not share a border with Balochistan and nor enjoy good relations with countries bordering it. Thus, India can express its official support but is not in a position to offer military support. Voicing support to Balochistan can thus only put a further strain on Indo-Pakistani relations. ?
· Bugti's succession is made difficult by the fact that he never had the courage to go to the jirga and acknowledge his grandson as heir. He feared that the sub-tribes would stop supporting him.?
· The BLA does not have the resources and consequently the capability. It cannot sustain a full fledged insurgency like in Waziristan and Afghanistan. ?
· The role of the Pakistani Army in Bugti's death is still unclear. The fact that there were only 15 to 20 people at Bugti's burial and no one from his family was present points to a possible foul play. ?
· Musharraf did not distance himself from the killing when he repeated that "the writ of the State is supreme?"
Final Remarks
C Rajamohan
· The Pakistani Army has failed to furnish a credible story and has been changing its statements. However Bugti's death may well succeed in uniting the Balochi.?
· President Musharraf's support base seems to be shrinking as was apparent from the fact that he is the only one from the establishment speaking about Bugti's death. Pakistan might be in danger of entering a new phase of dictatorship.?
· The developments in Balochistan should also be analyzed from a wider perspective. India never had clear borders as a nation-state and dealing with the population living beyond the Indus was always problematic. The British included the tribes within the boundaries of their colony in the subcontinent. Subsequently, Pakistan adopted the same borders. In reality however, no real authority has been exercised over these territories for centuries.?
· The situation in the tribal areas of Pakistan is not very different from that in India's north east. There is a need to modernize and develop the tribal areas in Pakistan. ?
· India will be awarded with new opportunities if the pot keeps boiling in Balochistan. A pertinent question is whether this is an appropriate moment for India to get a favorable agreement on Kashmir if President Musharraf is tactically weakened.
(Prof. Kalim Bahadur is a former Professor of Jawaharlal Nehru University. Dr. D Suba Chandran is Assistant Director at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. Dr. C Rajamohan is Strategic Affairs Editor of The Indian Express.)