Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Russian-Turkish message to EU

Some think that separating between economic cooperation and political tension is possible and they give the Russian-Turkish cooperation in the 1960s an example when Russia helped Turkey to establish big metallurgic industry that was a base for the Turkish steel industry and the heavy industry in general. Others think that when countries find that the political and military tension harm their long term interests they seek to establish short and medium term interests to serve as a ceiling for friction between these countries. They give the same example as a proof for their view. Geopolitically both Russia and Turkey have the same vital space in the Middle East, East Europe and Central Asia. Historically, both empires fought each other and the conclusion was that both were reduced to their homeland. Wars between them started as early as 1711. The Russian role to end the influence of the Ottoman Empire in East Europe was accompanied by wars against Turkey and Iran to spread influence in Balkan. Russia took Georgia in 1804 and Armenia in 1827 from the Persian Empire. The Russian, Turkish and Persian empires never formed alliances in a formula of two against one but the three were always at odds. The three empires sought alliances with the European forces against each other. The European forces played the game to serve their interests by shifting alliances between the three empires to put upper limits for their regional and international influence. The British and French navies helped the Russian navy against the Egyptian-Turkish navies in Navarino battle in 1827. After Greece became independent it was clear that revival of the empire was the only strategy that might save it. Napoleon principal stated a separation between Turkey and Egypt was a must to end the Eastern Empire. He was the first who suggested transfer of Jews from Europe to Palestine to serve this target. This Western strategic principal made the European forces abort trials of Mohamed Ali to revive the empire in London Treaty. They also gave the Russian Emperor Nicola the 1st a green card to force Turkish out of their Danube governorates in East Europe in 1854. However to put a limit for Russian aspirations they let the Egyptian army save the Turkish homeland 1854 -1856. Paris Treaty, 1856 was signed to safeguard the land of the Ottoman Empire. Another shift of alliance happened when they helped Russians again and the result was San Stefano Treaty 1878 between Russia and the Ottoman Empire that virtually ended the Turkish influence in Europe by giving independence to Romania, Serbia and Monte Negro. The Tripartite alliance between Britain, France and Russia, 1907, forced Turkey to have an alliance with the Germans and to side with them in WWI. Belford promise, 1917 founded a strategy based on Napoleon principle that served interests of western powers and Russia to put an end for any trial to revive any eastern empire on the Southern Russian borders. After WWII, the Soviet Union that was another Russian Empire was founded between the Russian homeland and satellite countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In fact most of these satellite countries were part of the Ottoman Empire. Therefore the fall of the Soviet Union revived Turkish dreams of having influence in Central Asia to East Turkistan that was occupied by China in 1920s.
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Both Russia and Turkey have problems with the EU. Russia wants to stop the spread of NATO, to abort the anti-missile shield and to regain its influence in Eastern Europe. Within this context Russia was forced to use its ground force in a war against Georgia. It threatened to withdraw from the Traditional Weapons Limitation Treaty and to upgrade its nuclear arms. Russia used oil and gas supplies to Europe as a weapon. The European responded by Nabco pipeline project that transport oil and gas from Central Asia bypassing the Russian land.The German and French veto for Turkish membership in the EU angers Turkey that still sees itself a European country and one of the most important countries in NATO. Turkey imports 30% of its oil and 70% of its gas from Russia. The agreement between Russia and Turkey about the Southern Stream pipeline balances the effect of the European Nabucco line. In fact the agreement makes both Russia and Turkey control the energy supply through pipelines to Europe if they cooperate. There are high chances that Russia would build the Turkish nuclear reactors. Both Russia and Turkey have common security interests now. Both do not like extremism to have a safe haven in Central Asia. Both refuse a Kurdish state anywhere. Both have cultural interests in central Asia. Despite being a member in NATO, Turkey is moderate about extension of the alliance to east and finds that the anti-missile shield is not so important for global defense. Russia could help Turkey to reconcile with Armenia, a prerequisite for EU membership. The message that both want to send to the Europe is that they read history. They establish bases for their cooperation that may solve political contradicting views that are still present. For the first time in recent history Europe finds Turkey and Russia on the same line. Both Turkey and Russia are important countries to the Arabs. When one sees Israel shares in military maneuvers with Turkey and the US and at the same time it sells unmanned warplanes to Russia that gave a promise to the Hebrew state that it would not take steps to change military balance, one should ask a simple question. Why do not Arabs move faster? Turkey is an ally to the US but this did not prevent it form protecting its interests and playing with the suitable cards to dissolve refusal for EU membership. Israel is an ally to the US but it does what its interests dictate to keep Russia from playing active role in balancing military powers in the region. Arabs are allies to the US but they ask it to consider their interests. They should play the cards they have and they have many cards. If they played it right the US would consider their rights not only in Palestine but also in the Gulf and Africa.

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